Women’s wages and childbearing decisions: Evidence from Italy

During the early 1990s, Italy became one of the first countries to reach lowest-low fertility. This was also a period in which women’s education and labour force participation increased. We analyze the role of women’s (potential) wages on their fertility decisions by making use of two different surveys. This enables us to apply discrete-time duration models. For first births, we find evidence of non-proportional hazards and of some “recuperation” effects; for second and third births, instead, wage exhibits small intensity although there is a clear division between Northern and Southern Italian regions. 1 Bank of Italy, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Department, via Nazionale, 91, 00184 Roma, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]. Corresponding author. 2 Department of Decision Sciences and “Carlo F. Dondena” Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]. 3 Department of Decision Sciences, Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research and “Carlo F. Dondena” Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]. http://www.demographic-research.org 549 Rondinelli et al.: Women’s wages and childbearing decisions: Evidence from Italy